OAKTREE ODDS

OAKTREE ODDS FOR BEATING THE MARKET

• Firmeza na busca de valor intrínseco.
• Insistência em agir da forma corretar quando os preços divergirem do valor intrínseco.
• Busca obter familiaridade com ciclos passados - obtidos através de leitura e conversas com investidores veteranos.
• Entendimento completo do efeito da psicologia de massas nos extremos do mercado.
• Lembrar que "quando as coisas parecem boas demais para serem verdade", normalmente são.
• Disposição para parecer estar errado quando o mercado estiver com avaliações absurdas para ainda mais absurdas.
• Amigos e colegas com pensamentos parecidos para buscar e dar suporte de pensamento.

Ekipeconômika

Alves, para Folha.com.br.

Ciclos

Há dois riscos em investimentos: o risco de perder o dinheiro e o risco de perder oportunidades. É possível eliminar um deles, mas não ambos. De tempos a tempos, um ou outro predomina sobre as pessoas.

     

Quando as coisas estão indo bem e os preços estão altos, os investidores correm para comprar, esquecendo toda a prudência. Em seguida, há o caos e os ativos vão pro balcão de barganha, quando todos perdem a vontade de assumir riscos e correm para vender. E vai ser sempre assim.

Howard Marks

Preço/Valor das Empresas

Segue estudo do Valor Econômico sobre o preço das ações da empresa sobre seu valor patrimonial (P/VPA).

Algumas pechinchas à vista:

Three Things I’ve Learned From Warren Buffett - by Bill Gates

I’m looking forward to sharing posts from time to time about things I’ve learned in my career at Microsoft and the Gates Foundation. (I also post frequently on my blog.)

Last month, I went to Omaha for the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting. It’s always a lot of fun, and not just because of the ping-pong matches and the newspaper-throwing contest I have with Warren Buffett. It’s also fun because I get to learn from Warren and gain insight into how he thinks.

Here are three things I’ve learned from Warren over the years:

1. It’s not just about investing.

The first thing people learn from Warren, of course, is how to think about investing. That’s natural, given his amazing track record. Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of people stop, and they miss out on the fact that he has a whole framework for business thinking that is very powerful. For example, he talks about looking for a company’s moat—its competitive advantage—and whether the moat is shrinking or growing. He says a shareholder has to act as if he owns the entire business, looking at the future profit stream and deciding what it’s worth. And you have to be willing to ignore the market rather than follow it, because you want to take advantage of the market’s mistakes—the companies that have been underpriced.

I have to admit, when I first met Warren, the fact that he had this framework was a real surprise to me. I met him at a dinner my mother had put together. On my way there, I thought, “Why would I want to meet this guy who picks stocks?” I thought he just used various market-related things—like volume, or how the price had changed over time—to make his decisions. But when we started talking that day, he didn’t ask me about any of those things. Instead he started asking big questions about the fundamentals of our business. “Why can’t IBM do what Microsoft does? Why has Microsoft been so profitable?” That’s when I realized he thought about business in a much more profound way than I’d given him credit for.

2. Use your platform.

A lot of business leaders write letters to their shareholders, but Warren is justly famous for his. Partly that’s because his natural good humor shines through. Partly it’s because people think it will help them invest better (and they’re right). But it’s also because he’s been willing to speak frankly and criticize things like stock options and financial derivatives. He’s not afraid to take positions, like his stand on raising taxes on the rich, that run counter to his self-interest. Warren inspired me to start writing my own annual letter about the foundation’s work. I still have a ways to go before mine is as good as Warren’s, but it’s been helpful to sit down once a year and explain the results we’re seeing, both good and bad.

3. Know how valuable your time is.

No matter how much money you have, you can’t buy more time. There are only 24 hours in everyone’s day. Warren has a keen sense of this. He doesn’t let his calendar get filled up with useless meetings. On the other hand, he’s very generous with his time for the people he trusts. He gives his close advisers at Berkshire his phone number, and they can just call him up and he’ll answer the phone.

Although Warren makes a point of meeting with dozens of university classes every year, not many people get to ask him for advice on a regular basis. I feel very lucky in that regard: The dialogue has been invaluable to me, and not only at Microsoft. When Melinda and I started our foundation, I turned to him for advice. We talked a lot about the idea that philanthropy could be just as impactful in its own way as software had been. It turns out that Warren’s brilliant way of looking at the world is just as useful in attacking poverty and disease as it is in building a business. He’s one of a kind.

Photo: Bill Gates

http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130612065727-251749025-three-things-i-ve-learned-from-warren-buffett

Emerging Markets

OUT OF FAVOR - The Economist

ARE investors falling out of love with emerging markets? The stockmarkets of developing countries were one of the few bright spots in investors’ portfolios during the first decade of the 21st century. But since October 2010 they have steadily underperformed markets in the developed world (see chart).

Emerging-market equities fell by 2.9% in May, leaving the MSCI EM index down by 4.4% since the start of the year compared with a 10% gain for the world as a whole. Other asset classes have been equally disappointing. 

The danger is that companies in the developing world may have overinvested on the expectation that rapid growth would continue. Martial Godet of BNP Paribas points out that the return on equity for emerging-market firms has fallen from 17.7% in July 2008 to 13.2% today.

The question is whether the recent underperformance is part of a longer-term cycle, like that in the late 1990s, or a shorter-lived development as in late 2008 and early 2009. Some of the current worries may be overdone. Just as investors often become overenthusiastic about emerging markets during booms, they can get too depressed in bear markets. Emerging markets still offer faster growth than the rich world. They have much better fiscal positions, too: government debt averages 33% of GDP.

The best rule of thumb is not to buy emerging markets when they are the consensus trade and when they look relatively expensive. At present emerging-market shares trade at a 25% discount to their developed-market peers. They have been cheaper in the past, but a further period of underperformance will make them very attractive to long-term investors.

Veja a reportagem completa: Out of Favor, The Economist.  

Regras dos Negócios

As Principais Regras de dois investidores.

Warren Buffett

Regra Nº1 - Nunca perca dinheiro.
Regra Nº2 - Não esqueça da regra nº1.


Howard Marks

Regra Nº1 - A maioria das coisas acontece em ciclos.
Regra Nº2 - As maiores oportunidades acontecem quando as pessoas esquecem a regra nº1.

Mais Howard Marks

Mais uma do Howard Marks:

"Quanto melhores tiverem sido os retornos de uma classe de ativos nos últimos tempos, menos provável que   eles sejam bons no futuro".

Segue uma breve entrevista dele na CNBC: